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Population Genetics and Statistics for Forensic Analysts

Paternity Calculations

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In paternity calculations the likelihood ratio is the same as the paternity index. The three tables below show the calculations of the likelihood ratio for different possible combinations of genotypes assuming that the mother, alleged father and father are unrelated.

In the tables

  • GC is the child's genotype
  • GM is the mother's genotype
  • GAF is the alleged father's genotype
  • Hp is the mother and alleged father are the true parents
  • Hd is the mother and an unrelated male are the true parents
  • LR numerator is P(GC|GM, GAF, Hp)
  • LR denominator is P(GC|GM, GAF, Hd).01

Likelihood Ratio and Paternity Calculation

GC

GM

GAF

Num

Denominator

LR

Ai Ai

Ai Ai

Ai Ai

1

pi

1/ pi

 

 

Ai Aj, j≠ i

1/2

pi

1/2pi

 

 

Aj Ak, k≠i, j

0

pi

0

Ai Ai

Ai Aj, i ≠ j

Ai Ai

1/2

pi /2

1/ pi

 

 

Ai Aj, j≠i

1/4

pi /2

1/2 pi

 

 

Aj Ak, k≠i, j

0

pi /2

0

Ai Aj, i≠j

Ai Ai

Aj Aj

1

pj

1/pj

 

 

Aj Ak, k≠j

1/2

pi

1/2 pj

 

 

Ak Al, k, l≠j

0

pi

0

Ai Aj, i≠j

Ai Aj, i≠j

Ai Ai

1/2

(pi + pj)/2

1/(pi + pj)

 

 

Ai Aj

1/2

(pi + pj)/2

1/( pi + pj)

 

 

Aj Ak, k≠j

1/4

(pi + pj)/2

1/(2(pi + pj))

 

 

Ak Al, k, l≠i, j

0

(pi + pj)/2

0

Ai Aj, i≠j

Ai Ak, k≠i, j

Aj Aj

1/2

pj /2

1/ pj

 

 

Aj Al,l ≠j

1/4

pj /2

1/2 pj

 

 

Ak Al, k, l≠j

0

pj /2

0

Example:

Locus

Mother

Child

Alleged Father

D3S1358

16

16

15, 16

vWA

17, 18

17, 18

18, 20

FGA

25, 27

23, 25

21, 23

D18S51

14, 18

18

18, 20

The following frequencies were used:

Locus

Allele

Frequency

Allele

Frequency

D3S1358

16

0.2315

 

 

vWA

17

0.2627

18

0.2219

FGA

23

0.1581

 

 

D18S51

18

0.0918

 

 

  • D3S1358 — LR = 1/2p16 = 1/(2 x 0.2315) = 2.1598
  • vWA — LR = 1/[2(p17 + p18)] = 1/[2(0.2627 + 0.2219)] = 1.0317
  • FGA — LR = 1/2p23 = 1/(2 x 0.1581) = 3.1625
  • D18S51 — LR = 1/2p18 = 1/(2 x 0.0918) = 5.4466

Therefore, LR = 2.1598 x 1.0317 x 3.1625 x 5.4466 = 38.3815

In other words, it is 38 times more likely that the child's DNA profile would be observed if the alleged father is the true father rather than an unrelated individual selected at random from the Caucasian population.

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